Crystal Balls 2015: Property market forecasts and predictions

How prime property’s top research units expect 2015 to pan out…

(linked to full report)
England & WalesGreater LondonCentral LondonOther predictions for 2015Date Released
Centre for Economics & Business Research (CEBR)House prices set for a fall – but not a crash – next year-0.8%-2.6%n/an/a10/7/14
Centre for Economics & Business Research (CEBR)CEBR revises forecasts after SDLT reform-0.6%-3.3%n/an/a01/07/15
Chestertons‘Sharp declines’ in asking prices expected, but little change for achieved valuesn/a+6% (2014-19: +39%)- If Conservative Government: +5% (2014-19: +31%)
- If Labour/Lib Deb Government: +1.5% (2014-19: +18.5%)
Rental Values:
- Greater London, +5%
- Central London, +3%
Rightmove / Oxford Economics‘West London to see slowest price growth in Britain over the next five years2015-19: 30.2%2015-19: +32.5%(West London) 2015-19: +13.6%n/a10/10/14
Knight Frank+3.5% for UK house prices next year, but 0% for PCL – Knight Frank+3.5%+3.5%0%Rental Values:
- National, +2.2%
- Prime Central London, +3.5%
- Outer London, +4%
Douglas & Gordon Asset ManagementPCL values to double over the next ten yearsn/an/a10 Year Forecast: +100%n/a10/17/14
Strutt & Parker / Volterra+5% for UK house prices next year, but only +2% for PCL+5%n/a+2%n/a10/20/14
JLL+4% for UK house prices next year; +1.5% for PCL+4% (2015-19: +22.8%) NB. UK, not E&W+5.5% (2015-19: +29.4%)+1.5% (2015-19: +19.9%)Central London developments: +4% in 201511/04/14
SavillsMansion tax could mean a 10% fall for superprime London next year+2% (2014-19: +19.3%) 0% (2014-19: +10.4%)Without mansion tax: -0.5% (2014-19: +22.7%).
With mansion tax: -5% (2014-19: +15.9%).
Prime Regions:
Without mansion tax: +1% (2014-19: +23.9%).
With mansion tax: -3% (2014-19: +19.6%).
Winkworth2015 to be ‘reverse image’ of 2014 – Winkworthn/a+2%0%PCL prices to drop by 5% by May, before recovering by the year's end11/10/14
Carter JonasUK Prime Regional Towns +4% to +7% next year; PCL -2% to +1%Town: Between +4% and +7%
Country: Between +2% and +5%
Mainstream: Between +1% and +4%
Prime: Between 0% and +3%
Between -2% and +1%n/a11/13/14
Halifax National mainstream market, +3-5%; but prime London demand to suffer+3-5%n/an/aDemand for London's top-end to be hit by "global economic worries"11/26/14
Marsh & ParsonsLondon rents to outpace house prices in 2015n/a+5%+3%Prime London rents to rise by 10%12/11/14
Hamptons InternationalSDLT reform to counter pre-election slowdown in 2015+4%+1.5%+0.5%"Modest" increase in transaction levels expected, from 908,500 in 2014 to 975,000 in 201512/15/14
CBRELondon house prices to rise by 31% over the next five years+6%+7%+5%London house prices to increase by 31% over five years12/18/14
RICSCouncil Tax is next in line for review+3%+0%n/aTransactions to rise from 1.22m in 2014 to 1.25m in 2015; rents to rise by 2%.12/19/14

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