We always say that forecasts are a tricky business etc, but this time we really mean it. Pollsters, pundits and experts (whether self-styled or with genuine merit) around the world have made a few high profile wonky calls in the last 12 months, which has contributed to a wide-ranging loss of faith in crystal balls, tea leaves, mystic octopi and, less amusingly, data and experience.
Nevertheless, the last few months of 2016 saw a drip feed of property market predictions from some of the most respected research units and industry insiders cross the PrimeResi desks. As you’d expect from such tumultuous times, there’s a fairly broad spread of bulls and bears anticipating anything from a 21% increase to a 12% drop in Prime Central London property prices over the next five years.
Many of our most experienced pundits have (probably wisely) opted for a more qualitative approach this year, and, since many of the quantitative forecasters use different metrics, areas and time-frames to put numbers on the future, most are not directly comparable. But some – with a pinch or two of Himalayan Pink Crystal Salt – are; here’s a selection:
Looking for some more in-depth thoughts on what may come to pass in the property market in 2017? Trawl through them here, or try this selection of insights:
- RICS: Transactions to dwindle further, but UK house prices to rise by 3% in 2017
- Savills: Lucian Cook’s six key themes for the resi property sector in 2017 and beyond
- Rightmove: Central London property prices to drop by 5% in 2017
- Quintessentially Estates: Central London ‘overspill’ to drive increased demand in fringe areas
- Banda Property & Russell Simpson: ‘Buyers are waiting for the Harrods sale of property’
- Strutt & Parker: Prime property market predictions from the Shires & Future, Tense: What to expect from the UK property market in 2017 and beyond
- Glentree Estates: They don’t ring a bell at the bottom of the cycle, but if they did, the sound would be deafening
- Reuters (poll): UK house prices to nudge up by 2% next year, but London likely to fall
- Henry Pryor: ‘It’s an evens bet that in ten years’ time, house prices will be 50% lower than where they are today’